History In Real Estate-Lessons Learned

A history lesson beats a headline every time. Anyone can tell you the market "feels slow." The numbers tell you what changed, when it changed, and what it means for your next move. Here's Collin County resale activity, January through August, for 2024, 2025, and 2026.

The scoreboard

Demand never left

This is the part the headlines miss. Buyers closed 7,102 homes in 2024, 7,022 in 2025, and 7,040 in 2026. That is about 880 homes absorbed every single month for three straight years. Demand did not collapse. It flatlined at a healthy number.

2025 was the break, not 2026

The shift everyone is feeling today happened last year. Monthly active listings jumped from 2,422 in 2024 to 3,864 in 2025 — a 60% surge in competing inventory while sales stayed flat. In 2026 supply rose only 2.9% more, and new listings actually fell 0.8%. The flood already happened; this year it stopped rising.

Look at it from a single seller's seat. Closings per new listing ran 60% in 2024, 51% in 2025, and 52% in 2026. In 2024, three of every five homes that listed found a buyer. Now it is about half. Nothing changed about buyer appetite — the number of sellers competing for those same buyers nearly doubled.

Price is softening, not breaking

The Jan–Aug median averaged $514.5K, down 3.4% from 2025. But August alone came in at $524,900, up 1.0% year over year. Sellers still netted 96.6% of original list price, barely off 2025's 96.8%. That is a market adjusting, not one in trouble.

Market time improved

Days on market averaged 34 this year against 31 last year and 20 in 2024 — but August's 33 days beat last August's 37. Homes are moving faster now than they were a year ago at the same point in the season.

What I'm watching into the fall

August pending sales hit 645, running 29% below August 2025. If that holds, fall closings will trail last year. Months of supply reached 5.0 in August, against 4.7 in 2025 and 3.6 in 2024 — still short of the six months that defines a balanced market, but the gap is closing.

What this means for you

If you're selling: you are no longer competing against four homes, you are competing against eight. Price against today's comps, not last spring's, and be ready in the first two weeks. Homes priced right still sell in about a month.

If you're buying: you have roughly 64% more choices than a 2024 buyer had, and sellers are conceding 3.4% off original list. That combination has not existed here in years.

If you're waiting: understand what you are waiting for. Demand is steady, supply growth has stalled, and prices have drifted down 3.4%. If inventory levels off while buyers keep absorbing 880 homes a month, the leverage you have right now is not permanent.

Scope: MLS-listed resale homes in Collin County. New construction is excluded, and most new-home sales never reach the MLS, so new-home-heavy cities are underrepresented. All comparisons use January through August of each year, so 2024 and 2025 figures exclude September through December.

Questions about your specific neighborhood or price band? Reach out — the county numbers are the backdrop, but your street is the story.