North Dallas & Plano Real Estate Blog

If you've felt whiplash watching Collin County home prices over the past few years, you’re not alone. It's time to stop worrying about volatility and start focusing on a powerful trend we've observed in the market data. Our specific analysis shows 2026 is shaping up to be a year of predictable opportunity right here in Collin County.

The Decade-Long Price Rhythms

For almost 20 years, we've tracked the price per square foot (PPSF) for resale homes in our area. The pattern of price escalation shows distinct brackets:

• Long Stability: From 2003 to 2014 (almost 12 years), PPSF held steady between $75 and $99.

• Gradual Climb: The next two major brackets ($100–$124 and $125–$149) took roughly four to five years to climb.

Then, things accelerated dramatically:

• The Velocity Zone (2021–2022): Prices shot through two new brackets ($150–$174 and $175–$199) in just 13 months total. This period of rapid escalation was driven by historically low interest rates and high demand.

The Critical Prediction for 2026

The most important insight for buyers and sellers today is this: The Collin County market entered the $200–$225 PPSF bracket in mid-2022 and has stayed there through the end of 2025—a stabilizing period of over three years.

After years of breakneck speed, the Collin County market has settled into a plateau. This stability, coupled with current factors, paints a highly positive picture for 2026:

1. Price Discovery is Working: Our data shows homes are currently selling at approximately 94.5% of their list price. This is not a market collapse; it’s a healthy correction. Buyers are getting negotiation power back, and price expectations are becoming realistic.

2. Rates and Inventory Balance: We anticipate interest rates will ease slightly, making housing more affordable. As more motivated sellers put their homes on the market, inventory will increase. This offers buyers more choices without triggering a massive price spike.

What This Means for You

The Collin County economic engine remains robust, suggesting continued demand. The biggest risk is waiting for a "crash" that our historical data suggests is unlikely.

• If you are a Buyer: This is your window. The volatility is over, interest rates are easing, and you have negotiating leverage. The stability of the current PPSF bracket means you can buy with confidence.

• If you are a Seller: Don't wait. Inventory is rising, but demand is consistent. List now while prices are holding firm in this high bracket and before potential governmental support for first-time buyers drives up new competition.

The next wave of price appreciation will follow another period of stability. The time to make your move is now, while the market is taking a breath. Contact The DeBerry Team of KW Legacy for your real estate needs 214-676-8040.